US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that headline inflation is around 3.5%, core inflation is about 2.3%, and private-sector job growth reached approximately 1 million this year.
Economists disagree, with EY chief economist Gregory Daco expecting the September Consumer Price Index to show inflation at 3.6% and real wages to fall by 0.6% year over year.
Bessent expects long-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates to decline once the Iran conflict ends and energy prices drop, whereas Federal Reserve officials attribute higher yields to economic strength.